As we have repeatedly stated, the 2020 Election has produced one of the most difficult forecasting environments as traditional data (such as polls) state that Biden will win whereas alternative data (social media, web traffic, search trends, on-line shopping, video metrics, etc.) state that Trump has the advantage. Furthermore, this divergence in outlook is the largest we have ever seen so close to Election Day and it has been widening!
We have waited for an event to come along to act as confirmation, something that will break this stalemate.
We believe this event has just been announced!
Dueling Townhalls Thursday at 8 pm EST!
Trump will appear on NBC while Biden will be on ABC.
We will know by perhaps midnight on Thursday who will likely win the 2020 Election. Social media, search, web traffic and video metrics for each of these events will provide tremendous insights. For those more cautious, TV-network confirmed number of viewers of each event will serve as the deciding factor.
This is essentially a CONTROLLED EXPERIMENT. An almost unheard of A/B type testing for candidates!
This is not a debate or even similar to a debate. Voters will CHOOSE which Townhall to watch, to comment on, to search about, etc.
Let’s put it this way . . . polls tell us that Biden will win in a landslide. We logically can infer that, if this is correct, that his Townhall’s performance should be similarly significant.
A ‘tie’ or a case where the metrics provide mixed insights or where the number of actual viewers is more or less equal would tend to help Trump but keep us in this quagmire.
The case in which the Trump Townhall figures look significantly better will essentially declare the consensus Biden landslide victory scenario as invalid.
We do not believe we will get the ‘tie’ scenario. We believe that one side will cleanly ‘win’ this A/B test in resounding fashion and that that side will win the 2020 Election.