Since the last Presidential Debate on October 22nd, our data show Trump gaining significant ground. The implication is that many undecideds, or perhaps late-deciders is a better term, will vote for Trump.
We saw a similar late surge in 2016 in favor of Trump in the weeks running up to Election Day. We believe that surge helped him win various swing states, including some that many thought impossible for a Republican to win.
The similar pattern in 2020 supports our current forecast of a Trump victory.
One of the conundrums of the 2020 election has been the divergence between our alternative data indicators and traditional ones, specifically polls. The late surge that we are detecting has not, for the most part, been reflected in polls or betting markets.
Polls have Biden’s national advantage at around 9 percentage points, seemingly unsurmountable this late in the cycle. Additionally, betting markets have remained fairly stable showing Biden as the favored candidate even after the last debate.